Brexit negotiation for children: can Theresa May develop object permanence and theory of mind?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 104. 

When human babies are shown a toy and then the toy is hidden from view, the toy ceases to exist in the baby's perception of the world. Peekaboo!

Children older than two develop the understanding that the toy would continue to exist even after it is hidden or after the child stops observing it. This understanding of the permanent nature of objects is called "object permanence".

British Prime Minister Theresa May is currently treating the issue of the Irish border just like a baby views a hidden toy: she is asking for the topic to be hidden from view (kicked in the long grass under the euphemism "alternative arrangements") so that it may be forgotten.

In this process, the PM is also showing lack of awareness of a more sophisticated concept called "theory of mind": the ability to understand that others have different perspectives from your own. The EU has repeatedly said that the Irish backstop is non-negotiable, but Theresa May seems to be struggling to understand that what she wants may not be what the other EU member states want.

Reassuringly, human children and even great apes normally develop theory of mind. So there is hope that in the two months remaining until March 29, Theresa May will finally be able to demonstrate that she is a grown-up human being with object permanence and theory of mind.

Children playing Peekaboo (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 104 have been posted so far and another 57 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Is Britain a plane that needs to land by March 29 or a ship that can keep sailing?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 103. 

With Hard Brexit beckoning on March 29, it would be useful for Britain to look itself in the mirror and decide which metaphor describes it better: 
1) a plane in mid-air that will eventually need to land; or 
2) a ship that is sailing in the open ocean and is in no hurry to dock at any port.

Brexiteers seem to think (or at least say) that the British economy can survive Hard Brexit without significant disruption, so they would probably pick the ship metaphor.

Realists, however, fear the havoc that a Hard Brexit may wreak, and would probably lean towards the plane metaphor.

But maybe there is a third metaphor that draws on the other two: an aircraft carrier with fighter jets onboard. Britain will not disappear in case of Hard Brexit but many industries and jobs will suffer: just like an aircraft carrier that is still seaworthy but has lost some of its planes.

Might the Brexiteers be unable to see the dangers of Hard Brexit because Britain's only existing aircraft carrier has yet to be equipped with fighter jets?

Aircraft carrier (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 103 have been posted so far and another 58 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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EU is a shark cage, but the sharks are on the outside

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 102. 

Brexiteers are right: the EU is a cage that keeps countries inside it and unable to roam the world's oceans. But why do countries stay inside the cage? Couldn't all of them stage a referendum and leave the EU?

They could, except that they would end up swimming in an ocean full of sharks: USA, China, Russia, India. The EU cage allows the member states inside it to engage with the sharks outside without being eaten. 

Shark cage (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 102 have been posted so far and another 59 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Can rain be good for health and fog for navigation? - Brexit Britain might wonder

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 101. 

Transitions are devilishly difficult. The transition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to democracy, market economy and a non-Soviet-centred pattern of foreign trade took at least a decade in the 1990s and was accompanied by several years of recession. 

Brexit does not require changes in the underlying political and economic structure of Britain but a Hard Brexit will be accompanied by a change in the pattern of trade away from the EU. So, one out of the three major characteristics of the post-Soviet transition will be part of the post-Brexit transition of the British economy.

Two questions arise from this: if there is a recession in Britain, how deep and how long will it be? The recession in Britain during the Global Financial Crisis lasted 5 quarters (15 months) in 2008 and 2009, but in the subsequent three years (2010-2012) there were another 4 scattered quarters of negative GDP growth. So it wasn't until 2013, five years after the financial crisis, that the British economy started moving steadily towards economic recovery.

Britain may recover faster from a Hard Brexit if the global economy is healthy in the coming years. However, if China or the US start to sneeze, Britain will go down with a cold. And if the global economy is hit by another global recession as in 2008-2009, post-Brexit Britain may get an outright pneumonia. 

Did anyone really believe that being left out in the cold and in the rain would be good for your health. And did anyone believe that fog would be good for navigation?

Foggy weather (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 101 have been posted so far and another 60 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Britain is gambling against the house in Brexit negotiations with EU

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 100.

It is never a good idea to expect to win when you play against the house. The chances would be stacked against the players in any casino around the world.

In the Brexit negotiations, the EU not only wrote the rules of the game but is also dealing the cards, while Britain is gambling, round after round, in the vain hope that it will win. Luckily for Britain the game is not roulette, which is entirely down to chance, but poker, which is dependent on both skill and chance. And Britain has traditionally had good diplomats. Yet, playing against the house is never a good idea. And the outcome is likely to be worse if the political system in your own country has features that resemble the schemes and machinations in "House of Cards".

Poker (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 100 have been posted so far and another 61 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Britain is installing steps to the EU now; and wheelchair access in 5-10 years

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 99. 

There is a principle in architecture: "never build one step; build zero or three." If you face a small difference in levels, smooth it out without a step. Or if the difference is big, use at least three steps. If you built just one step, people would not notice it and would stumble and fall all the time.

Britain's Brexit process seems to be the implementation of this architectural principle; we just don't know yet if it will be implemented correctly. Britain's relationship with the EU before 2016 was characterised by a marked difference in the level of commitment to the European project but both sides "agreed to disagree" and managed to smooth out their differences without building steps. The 2016 referendum, however, advised the British Government to build steps between the UK and the EU. The referendum never specified how many steps would need to be built; it just spat out an (advisory) instruction: "Leave! Build steps!"

The Luxembourg Prime-Minister Xavier Bettel laid out eloquently in 2018 the British penchant for sitting on the fence: “They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.” Theresa May is trying to "leave" by buiding two steps between Britain and the EU (OUT of the EU institutions and OUT of the Single Market), while Jeremy Corbyn is (unrealistically) calling for only one step (OUT of the EU institutions but remaining in a customs union with the EU). It will be interesting to see how many steps Britain will end up with, given the historical annoyance of the EU with the 2.5 steps that Switzerland has ended up with (i.e. some access to the Single Market).

Ironically, in 5-10 years, a wheelchair ramp with no steps will most likely be installed between Britain and the EU to smooth over the bigger difference in levels. However, in the meantime prepare for some hopping up and down the steps of different regulatory regimes - just like hopscotch but for adults.

Two steps, in violation of the architecture principle (Killarney, Ireland, Jan 2019)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 99 have been posted so far and another 62 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Trade under WTO terms after Hard Brexit would be like driving an SUV on railway tracks

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 98. 

Brexiteers think international trade is an all-terrain SUV: you can drive it anywhere where there are roads and even in many places without roads.

However, international trade is more like a train engine: it needs tracks to move anywhere at all. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has laid tracks or connnected railway networks here and there in the last two decades. Yet, global trade is full of gaps between track connections, differences in track gauge from country to country and broken down train engines.

Some Brexiteers are suggesting that it will all be fine if Britain ends up with Hard Brexit, in which case it would simply trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms. I wonder if they have ever tried driving an SUV on railway tracks, dodging oncoming railway traffic.

Railway tracks (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 98 have been posted so far and another 63 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Has Wales forgotten on which side its bread is buttered? - asks Airbus CEO

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 97. 

Many sectors of the UK economy are dependent on the EU: exports to Continental Europe are the bread and butter of a number of British regions. Yet, some parts of the country have forgotten on which side their bread is buttered.

The CEO of Airbus reminded Wales today (Jan 24) that the company's plane wing production in Broughton may need to move to the continent if there is a Hard Brexit and thousands of jobs may be lost. Some 52.5% of the Welsh voted Leave in the 2016 referendum, but the Welsh are not the only ones who cannot tell the buttered side of their toast - maybe because they like it served with cheese instead (known as Welsh rabbit).

The Midlands and Newcastle voted Leave but depend on exports of locally-manufactured cars to Europe. Cornwall voted Leave even though it is dependent on EU aid and agricultural subsidies as Britain's second poorest region (after West Wales). While London, though it voted overwhelingly Remain, is very much dependent on financial services.

Business leaders keep reminding Britain that the country does not eat brioche (a la Marie Antoinette) but bread and butter. Yet, if you don't know on which side your bread is buttered, you may end up eating toast with no butter at all.

Toast (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 97 have been posted so far and another 64 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Wobbly Singapore-on-Thames chimera loses out to Singapore proper

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 96. 

Global bank HSBC moved its headquarters from Hong Kong to London in 1992 to be immune to potential uncertainty in Hong Kong after Britain's 1997 handover of the city to China. Going the other way, British vacuum maker Dyson now plans to move its headquarters from Britain to Singapore. Dyson claims this is not related to Brexit but is merely an attempt to capitalise on growth in Asia. However, its pro-Brexit founder James Dyson could not have chosen a more sensitive moment to announce this move. 

If growth in Asia is the driving factor behind the HQ move, could Asia also explain many of the curses of globalisation for which Brexiting Britain has been blaming the European Union? Could the EU have served merely as an early harbinger of globalisation, as a continent-wide simulation which has in recent decades been rolled out on a global scale? But then shouldn't the UK Government also offer the British people a referendum on globalisation? It could end up even bigger than the 2016 referendum on the EU. And if it turns out that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is part of the problem for "Leave-Globalisation" voters, what could the solution be when trading on WTO terms turns out to be the "enemy of the people"? ...Maybe urgently finding water on Mars and moving there?

The Singapore-on-Thames vision for London and Britain is increasingly looking like a chimera: a mythical creature with the head of a lion, the body of a goat and the tail of a snake. On the other hand, Singapore, the lion city, already has a real stone lion on its waterfront (the Merlion, pictured), and this lion is the mascot of the city. 

The fact that a non-existent lion is losing out to an existing one almost sounds like a logical fallacy but it is not. Globalisation moves in mysterious ways its wonders to perform.

Merlion, the official mascot of Singapore (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 96 have been posted so far and another 65 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Is Brexit spilt milk or burnt milk?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 95. 

There is no use crying over spilt milk, say the British. If the bottle of milk is Britain's EU membership, spilt milk is Brexit. And once Brexit has been set in progress, it is difficult to reverse it, just like it is difficult to put back spilt milk into the bottle .So "don't cry over spilt milk" could also be used by Brexitteers when talking to Remainers: the 2016 referendum is the will of the people, EU membership is about to be over, get over it.

However, spilling milk is a relatively benign way of destroying the contents of a bottle. What if Brexit turns out to be not merely spilt milk but burnt milk? If you have ever burnt milk on a hot plate, you know how badly it stinks. What if Brexit causes damage to the economy just like burnt milk stinks up the whole house? What if the damage affects not only the British economy but also the EU, just like burnt milk in an apartment building can stink up all the neighbours?

Ireland, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Spain have a lot to lose in the case of Hard Brexit. So they are probably wondering: why did Britain have to spill its milk on a hot tin roof? Couldn't it have just poured it down the drain?

Milk bottle (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 95 have been posted so far and another 66 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Fruit keep ripening after being picked; Voters keep learning after being consulted in referendum

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 94. 

When you pick a fruit from the tree, this is a "no turning back" moment: you cannot re-attach the fruit back to the tree. Similarly, when you offer the people of a country a referendum on an issue, it looks like this will be a "no turning back" moment, whatever the outcome.

Yet, some types of fruit (bananas, apples, peaches) keep ripening after they have been detached from the branch. In the same way some people keep learning more about the issue put to referendum for months and years after the vote took place.

Since the 2016 EU referendum, many "Leave" voters who chose to engage with reality and learn more about the EU have changed their mind and would now vote "Remain". Shouldn't they be entitled to be given a voice again, or are they expected to just "go bananas"?

Bananas (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 94 have been posted so far and another 67 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Parliament is a garbage processing plant that separates wheat from chaff

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 93. 

In statistics and computer science there is a principle called "garbage in, garbage out" (GIGO): if you input nonsense, you get nonsense as a result. In political science, a referendum produces a good approximation of the GIGO principle: the inputs are noisy (e.g. campaigning on emotive rather than factually-relevant factors) and the outcomes are noisy (with unclear follow-up) as well: "noise in, noise out". The 2016 EU referendum in Britain is the perfect example.

Before your household garbage reaches the landfill, however, there is an intermediate step of collection and processing. Garbage trucks compress the collected garbage to increase transportation capacity while processing plants pick out recyclable materials from the garbage (paper, glass, plastic).

In the democratic process of representative democracy, parliament is the garbage truck and the processing plant. It separates the garbage from the recyclable materials and helps put recyclables to good use. The job of MPs is to work through the noisy and fuzzy data and come up with solutions that bring complexity down to a manageable sequence of rules, policies and actions. This is why representative democracy works much better than direct democracy for complex matters: no one but the professionals have the time to study each issue in its complexity.

It will become clear by the end of January 2019 if the EU wheat can be separated from the Brexit chaff by the British Parliament. Or if another referendum will need to be held.

Garbage truck (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 93 have been posted so far and another 68 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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33 months in EU "departureship" pale in comparison with UK's 12-times longer EU membership

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 92. 

Have you noticed that disembarking a plane is always faster than boarding a plane? And packing to check out from your hotel room is always faster than packing at home for the same trip? It seems so much easier to take everything which is yours and sweep the hotel room clean than deciding what to bring from home and what to leave behind. Yet, one should not underestimate the time needed to vacate a hotel room or a plane. 

Britain spent 402 months as a (committed) EU member state from January 1973 until June 2016, and is scheduled to spend 33 months in the process of leaving, from June 2016 until the end of March 2019, i.e. a difference by a factor of 12. Building up a sui-generis supranational organisation does take time, but leaving it turns out not to be an easy job either - at least not of the calibre of the 12:1 ratio of membership to "departure-ship". Sensible Brexiteers (while still passionately believing that Britain belongs outside the EU) must be secretly wishing that Article 50 gave five years to prepare for proper withdrawal rather than merely two.

Spending 33 months in "departureship" is turning out insufficient to actually depart the mothership at all. Wouldn't it have been easier to disembark if the luggage on the plane was kept on open racks (as in the 1970s photo below), rather than in closed overhead luggage bins as it is nowadays. If the EU had been simply a Customs Union, unravelling membership would have been easy. However, the EU has become a lot more compartmentalised since the 1970s and the acquis communautaire now contains 35 chapters (compartments), all of which have to be "cleared" before a new relationship between the UK and the EU can be forged.

Boarding a plane in the 1970s (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 92 have been posted so far and another 69 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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"To Brexit" or not "to brexit", these are the two questions

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 91. 

The verb "to brexit" (брекзит / брэкcит) seems to be doing the rounds in Moscow, at least as a hypothetical new word. Whereas in French and Russian "to take an English leave" means to leave without saying Goodbye, "to brexit" would be exactly the opposite: tell everybody that you are leaving but not leave at all. At least that's what Russians joke about.

In a similar way, a new verb entered the German language in 2015. "Merkeln", derived from the name of Angela Merkel, means to do nothing or fail to make a decision.

Who would have thought that Brexit and Merkel have a shared destiny?

Example of the use of "to brexit" in Russian (screenshot)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 91 have been posted so far and another 70 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Becoming an island: creating Siege Mentality is the only argument for Brexit

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 90.  

Isolated or discriminated communities often develop a "siege mentality": they get united in order to survive and by pulling their act together succeed where others have failed. Armenians, Jews and Singaporeans have suffered persecution and are some of the examples of what unity can achieve. These communities support each other and rally behind a common cause. Imagine what a difference it would make for the development of entrepreneurship, for example, if you had a family network that would always lend you money when in need.

Given that a Singapore-on-Thames deregulation experiment would be politically impossible to implement in the UK, Britain's probably only other remaining economic (and psychological) argument for Brexit is as an attempt to create a "siege mentality". This could potentially tap skills and resources that the British had not suspected they had inside them before. 

Ironically, it sounds like Britain does not feel itself enough of an island and needs to convince itself it needs to be more of an island. Go figure!

Island (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 90 have been posted so far and another 71 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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