Can rain be good for health and fog for navigation? - Brexit Britain might wonder

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 101. 

Transitions are devilishly difficult. The transition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to democracy, market economy and a non-Soviet-centred pattern of foreign trade took at least a decade in the 1990s and was accompanied by several years of recession. 

Brexit does not require changes in the underlying political and economic structure of Britain but a Hard Brexit will be accompanied by a change in the pattern of trade away from the EU. So, one out of the three major characteristics of the post-Soviet transition will be part of the post-Brexit transition of the British economy.

Two questions arise from this: if there is a recession in Britain, how deep and how long will it be? The recession in Britain during the Global Financial Crisis lasted 5 quarters (15 months) in 2008 and 2009, but in the subsequent three years (2010-2012) there were another 4 scattered quarters of negative GDP growth. So it wasn't until 2013, five years after the financial crisis, that the British economy started moving steadily towards economic recovery.

Britain may recover faster from a Hard Brexit if the global economy is healthy in the coming years. However, if China or the US start to sneeze, Britain will go down with a cold. And if the global economy is hit by another global recession as in 2008-2009, post-Brexit Britain may get an outright pneumonia. 

Did anyone really believe that being left out in the cold and in the rain would be good for your health. And did anyone believe that fog would be good for navigation?

Foggy weather (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 101 have been posted so far and another 60 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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