Rock-Paper-Scissors can predict what Brexit will deliver

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 159 

Game Theory can describe the Brexit process since the EU Referendum and scope out the final outcome.

When was the last time you played Rock-Paper-Scissors? If you are a British voter, you unknowingly played one round in the EU Referendum in 2016.

There are three possible moves in the game:
a) PAPER is membership of the EU, with its (according to The Sun) paper-pushing bureaucrats in Brussels.
b) SCISSORS is Hard Brexit, whereupon Britain severs its ties with the EU.
c) ROCK represents some form of association with the EU, e.g. via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement or via membership of the Single Market, the bedrock of European prosperity. The Withdrawal Agreement has also been a rock tied around the neck of the British Prime Minister.

1. In ROUND 1, British voters were given a choice in 2016 between PAPER (Remain in the EU) and SCISSORS (Leave the EU) and they chose SCISSORS. Populism triggered emotions which trumped rational choices, hence the SCISSORS outcome.

2. ROUND 2 (ROCK beats SCISSORS) has been a prolonged process of external and internal (within the Conservative Party) negotiations from 2017 to 2019 that is still being played out. The UK Parliament has indicated that Hard Brexit is not an option and even Hard Brexiteers are starting to accept that this cannot happen.

3. In ROUND 3 (PAPER beats ROCK), the forthcoming solution is still being threshed out but any deal with the EU will be inferior to the relationship that Britain already has with the EU as a member, which gives the UK a seat at the decision-making table. So a solution of either revoking Article 50 in view of the chaos of Brexit or putting the final deal to a Second Referendum may ultimately lead to the outcome of Britain remaining in the EU.


Yet, a key question remains: when do you stop playing? If the UK stays in the EU, would Brexiteers ask for a 3rd referendum or attempt to sabotage Britain's EU membership in other ways?

Rock-Paper-Scissors game (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 159 have been posted so far and two more Brexit Metaphors will be published until the originally planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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5. Thank you for being here!

Shreds of the Withdrawal Agreement are smeared on the PM's face

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 154 

If you wipe your wet face with a paper towel that is too thin, you will end up with pieces of paper stuck all over your face.

The UK's Withdrawal Agreement is one such thin paper towel. Britain was never going to be able to negotiate anything substantially better than this with the EU. And now that the UK Parliament has rejected this thin paper twice, its shreds are humiliatingly stuck to the face of the British prime minister - like an egg on her face.

How will she ever get out of this shambolic mess?

Theresa May, Feb 2019 (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 154 have been posted so far and another 7 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the originally planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Brexit is a wart on the face of Britain and folk remedies can't help

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 145 

Brexit is a wart on the face of the British political landscape and the economy. The worse part is that British politicians are dealing with it in an utterly chaotic way: Parliament voted against the Withdrawal Agreement on March 12 and against a No-Deal Brexit on March 13. The only thing they haven't tried yet are folk remedies. Tom Sawyer recommends using "spunk water" (water collected in the hollow of a tree stump) for treating warts, while Huckleberry Finn prefers throwing a dead cat into a graveyard. Would you be surprised if you saw on March 14 a headline in The Sun: 

"Tender for the procurement of 650 dead cats for Westminster."

The face of Brexit Britain

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 145 have been posted so far and another 16 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Britain is a helicopter trying to soar above the 7.5 km ceiling of the Withdrawal Agreement

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 144 

The UK is a helicopter on a mission to fly away from Europe. Helicopters can only soar to an altitude of 7.5 km above sea level. Beyond that the air is too thin to sustain propeller-driven ascent. 

Britain's EU Withdrawal Agreement is a shroud that envelops the Earth at 7.5 km altitude. It limits Britain, tying it to the lower reaches of the atmosphere. No matter how much the British helicopter tries to breach this ceiling, it can't. Maybe with an EU-sanctioned updraft (Theresa May's March 11 agreement with Brussels), it can go up to 7.6 km, but that's about it: Britain is tied to planet Europe.

Of course, the helicopter also has the option to crash into the ocean. March 29 beckons.

Eurocopter helicopter (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 144 have been posted so far and another 17 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

The Brexit story told in 5 animals from the Chinese Zodiac

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 108.

The Chinese zodiac has 12 animals and the EU flag has 12 stars. The similarities end here.

The stars cannot tell a good story because they are all the same. While the animals are very different.

Here is the story of Brexit in five animals, with a divination twist at the end:
2016, Year of the Monkey: Brexit started with the EU referendum - after a campaign marked by shenanigans.
2017, Year of the Rooster: Theresa May triggered Article 50 - a wake up call.
2018, Year of the Dog: The Withdrawal Agreement went to the dogs with the biggest defeat in Britain's modern political history.
2019, Year of the Pig: Starting from February 5, we will all be wallowing in mud for a year, as this will be the Year of the Earth Pig.
2020, Year of the Rat: Guess what happens then! 
(Hint: the Global Financial Crisis started in the Year of the Rat 12 years earlier.)

Alternatively, if Chinese mythology has got its number wrong, the Pig and the Rat may descend upon us all at once, as the Juglar Cycle of economic activity and investment is up to 11 years long, while the planet Jupiter (after which the Chinese Zodiac cycle was fashioned) completes its rotation in 11.85 years.

So in the Brexit context, the phrase"Keep your friends close and your enemies closer" might warrant paraphrasing to: 

"Keep your zoos closed and your animals away from the bulldozer."

Chinese Zodiac (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 108 have been posted so far and another 53 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Brexit Britain is heading towards Italian-style disagreement on everything

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 89. 

When politicians in a country start to disagree on everything, they are sometimes reminded of Italy. “Ruling the Italians is not difficult; it is pointless.” - observed Benito Mussolini in the early part of the 20th century.

Britain is increasingly resembling Italy in its "disagree to disagree" approach. The British Parliament rejected Theresa May's Withdrawal Deal on January 15 and then rejected a vote of non-confidence on January 16. 

One does start wondering what January 17 might hold in store?

Italy map & flag (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 89 have been posted so far and another 72 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Brexit civilisation may turn out much more short-lived than Soviet civilisation

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 88. 

Have you seen the history of Soviet civlisation? I haven't. And neither has the professor who supposedly teaches such a subject at a Russian university (see photo). The history of said civilisation seems to be contained in a few thumbtacks on an empty noticeboard.

January 15, 2019 was the beginning of the end of the even more short-lived Brexit civilisation (excuse the oxymoron). Theresa May's crushing 432:202 defeat in the British Parliament means that UK's withdrawal from the EU is less likely to happen on March 29, 2019, if at all. Britain has experienced a few pinpricks along the Brexit motorway so far, including a sustained devaluation of the pound since 2016; bank asset transfers to the Continent; and London losing the European Banking Authority (to Paris) and the European Medicines Agency (to Amsterdam). Yet, this would be a minor price to pay for foregoing the pleasures of living in a Brexit civilisation.

History of Soviet Civilisation (notice board at Moscow university, Jan 15, 2019)

Self-explanatory (BBC World News screenshot, Jan 15, 2019)

---Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 88 have been posted so far and another 73 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

UK without Northern Ireland is like a cat without a tail

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 85. 

In Bulgaria's stingiest city, Gabrovo, people are anecdotally known to cut off the tails of their cats so that if you open the front door to let your cat out of the house, the door needs to stay open as short as possible and heat loss is kept to a minimum.

Northern Ireland is the tail of the UK cat. In the current Brexit process "the tail is wagging the cat", causing enormous difficulties for Theresa May and her EU Withdrawal Agreement. She must be secretly wishing that the tail had been cut off from the United Kingdom back in 1922 when the partition of Ireland de facto took place. The spectre of the 1922 Committee (name unrelated to Ireland) is still chasing the British Prime Minister, even though she fended off the most recent attack on her premiership by the very 1922 Committee.

Manx cat with stumpy tail (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 85 have been posted so far and another 76 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Brexit is like taking a shower without control of the water temperature

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 56

Have you been at a hotel where you go for a shower and you realise you cannot control the temperature of the water? This is what Britain will experience after Brexit under the Withdrawal Agreement and the Irish Backstop. As an EU member state the UK would have had almost full control of the shower and the water temperature, but after Brexit it is foresaking this control (giving up the seat at the decision-making table) and accepting a shower at any temperature in order to be able to take a shower at all (i.e. to have access to the Single Market).

There is a slightly inelegant way to cope with a shower that is too hot: you can squat low so that the shower jets have time to cool a bit by the time the water reaches your skin. Squatting like this is not exactly genuflection but wouldn't you agree it is pretty close to it?

Shower (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 105 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

This is how UK's Withdrawal ends: "not with a bang, but a whimper"

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 53

The UK's Withdrawal Agreement was supposed to be defeated in Parliament today. However, Theresa May chose not to table it at all and instead re-enacted T. S. Eliot's famous metaphor. So this is how the Withdrawal Agreement ends: "not with a bang, but a whimper."

T. S. Eliot: "Not with a bang, but a whimper" (Source: Bozhil Hristov)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 108 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

The Single Market was not built in a day for BoJo to unbundle

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 51

Boris Johnson, in his almighty wisdom and flowery language, declared on the BBC today that the UK can renegotiate with the EU and have the Irish backstop removed from the Withdrawal Agreement. Hence the following flowery metaphor:

The EU Single Market and the Customs Union resemble the still life paintings below in respect of the time they all took to come to life:
1) Jan van Huysum (left) needed more than a year to paint these flowers because he could only paint each flower accurately when it was in bloom, and the different flowers blossomed in different seasons.
2) Claude Monet (right) found painting the vase of wild mallows very difficult, so he kept the canvas in his studio for 40 years, re-worked it continuously, and only finished it at the end of his life.
3) The Customs Union took 11 years to complete (1957-1968) and required some groundbreaking rulings by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), e.g. the 1963 Van Gend en Loos v The Netherlands.
4) The Single Market took 46 years to launch (1957-1993), though the preparatory work started in earnest with the "mutual recognition" principle enshrined by the 1979 ECJ case Cassis de Dijon.

Now back to Boris Johnson (affectionately known as BoJo): His fantasy expectations that the EU would unbundle the Single Market or the Customs Union to make an exception for Britain are as unlikely to materialise as a painter like Claude Monet would have been likely to take the scissors and cut a flower out of his vase canvas after 40 years of working on it.

The Single Market, just like Rome, was not built in a day, so no amount of curve balls or curvy bananas that BoJo may throw at it would sway the EU. Yet, BoJo likes to think that he moves in mysterious ways and has yet more wonders to perform.

Flower paintings by Jan van Huysum (left) and Claude Monet (right), Dulwich Picture Gallery, London, Dec 2018

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 110 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexitos Nullis to Brexitos Brutalis: Evolution of Brexit in 5 Dog Latin names

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 46

If Brexit were a dinosaur, it would have evolved (or rather mutated) into at least five species since 2016, all aptly named in binomial nomenclature in Dog Latin:

1. Brexitos Norvegiensis: Norway model (membership of the Single Market)
2. Brexitos Canadiensis: Canada model (free trade deal with the EU)
3. Brexitos Theresamaysis: Brexit based on the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May
4. Brexitos Nullis: Annulled/Cancelled Brexit (revoking of the triggering of Article 50)
5. Brexitos Brutalis: disorderly Hard Brexit

Now, which Brexit is your favourite dinosaur?

Dinosaur clades/categories (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 115 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Britain's EU Withdrawal Agreement at least has a price tag. Alternatives don't.

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 44

Theresa May's much maligned Withdrawal Agreement with the EU comes with a price tag, 39 billion pounds. This is the discounted bulk price for a package of commitments by the UK, but not too many commitments by the EU given that the future economic relationship is yet to be negotiated. Yet, at least the UK has been given a dinner menu with prices and knows the total bill for the dishes it has ordered.

Brexiteers and Labour leaders alike (including Jeremy Corbyn himself) have been going around the country calling for a renegotiation. Their purported aim is to get the EU to serve Britain more dishes (including free trade with the EU but not requiring the UK to join the EU Customs Union) and all this for a lower total bill. 

Is there a problem with this? Only one: they are ordering from an imaginary menu where each dish is priced at whatever you are willing to pay. 

Doesn't this sounds like early-stage communism? Or is Jeremy Corbyn just picking up random ideas from Venezuela and other basket cases with make-believe economic models?

Dinner menu, no prices (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 117 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.