Britain is a seagull that wants to eat on its own. But can it catch fish alone?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 122. 

Seagulls fly in flocks when hunting for fish in the sea or scavenging at landfill sites. However, as soon as they catch something, they dash off on their own away from the flock so that no other seagull would steal their catch.

You may know the phrase "run with the hares, hunt with the hounds." In this case, the seagulls are behaving in a way that can best be described as "hunt with the hounds, eat without the hounds."

Britain went hunting together with Europe in 1973 and has since managed to snatch a few tasty morsels thanks to Europe's vast and wealthy hinterland: financial services, professional services, pharmaceuticals, IT, aerospace, automotive, etc. And now Brexiting Britain wants to consume and digest these morsels on its own. But how likely are these to be sustained and maintained after leaving the EU? Or could it turn out that the proverbial "moving bicycle" theory which is often used to describe the EU ("stop moving forward and it collapses") would be even more relevant as a description for the export-dependent industrial and services sectors of the British economy? No Europe, no finance. No Europe, no pharma.

It sounds like Britain is heading towards a hybrid-proverb scenario after March 29: "Hunt without the hounds, eat garbage on a landfill."

Seagulls (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 122 have been posted so far and another 39 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Has Wales forgotten on which side its bread is buttered? - asks Airbus CEO

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 97. 

Many sectors of the UK economy are dependent on the EU: exports to Continental Europe are the bread and butter of a number of British regions. Yet, some parts of the country have forgotten on which side their bread is buttered.

The CEO of Airbus reminded Wales today (Jan 24) that the company's plane wing production in Broughton may need to move to the continent if there is a Hard Brexit and thousands of jobs may be lost. Some 52.5% of the Welsh voted Leave in the 2016 referendum, but the Welsh are not the only ones who cannot tell the buttered side of their toast - maybe because they like it served with cheese instead (known as Welsh rabbit).

The Midlands and Newcastle voted Leave but depend on exports of locally-manufactured cars to Europe. Cornwall voted Leave even though it is dependent on EU aid and agricultural subsidies as Britain's second poorest region (after West Wales). While London, though it voted overwhelingly Remain, is very much dependent on financial services.

Business leaders keep reminding Britain that the country does not eat brioche (a la Marie Antoinette) but bread and butter. Yet, if you don't know on which side your bread is buttered, you may end up eating toast with no butter at all.

Toast (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 97 have been posted so far and another 64 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

What Australia's Valley of Death can teach Brexit Britain's automotive industry

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 32

Adelaide (South Australia) used to be the hub of Australia's vibrant automotive industry for decades. However, various macroeconomic factors in the 21st century gradually made the industry uncompetitive and in 2017 the last car assembly plant in Australia shut down.

This is no big revelation: industries come and go, in line with Schumpeter's "creative destruction" theory. The big story here is what happens to the automotive workers. One Australian business school dean calls the 5-year period after the demise of an industry "the Valley of Death." It turns out it takes about five years for the regional economy and the workers laid off in one sector to find a new sector of employment.

In 2016 after the Brexit referendum I sat on a plane next to a BCG automotive industry consultant. Back then Nissan in the northeast of England was the big news story. The consultant did not think Nissan's plant was facing a major threat as the risk of a 10% tariff being imposed on British car exports to the EU was outweighed by the depreciation of the British pound. However, he thought the less efficient car plants in the Midlands would shut down if EU tariffs kicked in and their workers would not find a job again for the rest of their life.

A Valley of Death in the Midlands might sound like a "Middle Earth" scare story from The Lord of the Rings but is sadly a realistic prospect. Just look at other Rust Belt regions, from the US Midwest to northeast China. And it is not the heat that kills in the Valley of Death; it is idleness.

Car assembly line (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 129 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.