Rock-Paper-Scissors can predict what Brexit will deliver

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 159 

Game Theory can describe the Brexit process since the EU Referendum and scope out the final outcome.

When was the last time you played Rock-Paper-Scissors? If you are a British voter, you unknowingly played one round in the EU Referendum in 2016.

There are three possible moves in the game:
a) PAPER is membership of the EU, with its (according to The Sun) paper-pushing bureaucrats in Brussels.
b) SCISSORS is Hard Brexit, whereupon Britain severs its ties with the EU.
c) ROCK represents some form of association with the EU, e.g. via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement or via membership of the Single Market, the bedrock of European prosperity. The Withdrawal Agreement has also been a rock tied around the neck of the British Prime Minister.

1. In ROUND 1, British voters were given a choice in 2016 between PAPER (Remain in the EU) and SCISSORS (Leave the EU) and they chose SCISSORS. Populism triggered emotions which trumped rational choices, hence the SCISSORS outcome.

2. ROUND 2 (ROCK beats SCISSORS) has been a prolonged process of external and internal (within the Conservative Party) negotiations from 2017 to 2019 that is still being played out. The UK Parliament has indicated that Hard Brexit is not an option and even Hard Brexiteers are starting to accept that this cannot happen.

3. In ROUND 3 (PAPER beats ROCK), the forthcoming solution is still being threshed out but any deal with the EU will be inferior to the relationship that Britain already has with the EU as a member, which gives the UK a seat at the decision-making table. So a solution of either revoking Article 50 in view of the chaos of Brexit or putting the final deal to a Second Referendum may ultimately lead to the outcome of Britain remaining in the EU.


Yet, a key question remains: when do you stop playing? If the UK stays in the EU, would Brexiteers ask for a 3rd referendum or attempt to sabotage Britain's EU membership in other ways?

Rock-Paper-Scissors game (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 159 have been posted so far and two more Brexit Metaphors will be published until the originally planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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5. Thank you for being here!

Britain is a helicopter trying to soar above the 7.5 km ceiling of the Withdrawal Agreement

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 144 

The UK is a helicopter on a mission to fly away from Europe. Helicopters can only soar to an altitude of 7.5 km above sea level. Beyond that the air is too thin to sustain propeller-driven ascent. 

Britain's EU Withdrawal Agreement is a shroud that envelops the Earth at 7.5 km altitude. It limits Britain, tying it to the lower reaches of the atmosphere. No matter how much the British helicopter tries to breach this ceiling, it can't. Maybe with an EU-sanctioned updraft (Theresa May's March 11 agreement with Brussels), it can go up to 7.6 km, but that's about it: Britain is tied to planet Europe.

Of course, the helicopter also has the option to crash into the ocean. March 29 beckons.

Eurocopter helicopter (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 144 have been posted so far and another 17 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Is Britain a plane that needs to land by March 29 or a ship that can keep sailing?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 103. 

With Hard Brexit beckoning on March 29, it would be useful for Britain to look itself in the mirror and decide which metaphor describes it better: 
1) a plane in mid-air that will eventually need to land; or 
2) a ship that is sailing in the open ocean and is in no hurry to dock at any port.

Brexiteers seem to think (or at least say) that the British economy can survive Hard Brexit without significant disruption, so they would probably pick the ship metaphor.

Realists, however, fear the havoc that a Hard Brexit may wreak, and would probably lean towards the plane metaphor.

But maybe there is a third metaphor that draws on the other two: an aircraft carrier with fighter jets onboard. Britain will not disappear in case of Hard Brexit but many industries and jobs will suffer: just like an aircraft carrier that is still seaworthy but has lost some of its planes.

Might the Brexiteers be unable to see the dangers of Hard Brexit because Britain's only existing aircraft carrier has yet to be equipped with fighter jets?

Aircraft carrier (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 103 have been posted so far and another 58 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Can rain be good for health and fog for navigation? - Brexit Britain might wonder

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 101. 

Transitions are devilishly difficult. The transition of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to democracy, market economy and a non-Soviet-centred pattern of foreign trade took at least a decade in the 1990s and was accompanied by several years of recession. 

Brexit does not require changes in the underlying political and economic structure of Britain but a Hard Brexit will be accompanied by a change in the pattern of trade away from the EU. So, one out of the three major characteristics of the post-Soviet transition will be part of the post-Brexit transition of the British economy.

Two questions arise from this: if there is a recession in Britain, how deep and how long will it be? The recession in Britain during the Global Financial Crisis lasted 5 quarters (15 months) in 2008 and 2009, but in the subsequent three years (2010-2012) there were another 4 scattered quarters of negative GDP growth. So it wasn't until 2013, five years after the financial crisis, that the British economy started moving steadily towards economic recovery.

Britain may recover faster from a Hard Brexit if the global economy is healthy in the coming years. However, if China or the US start to sneeze, Britain will go down with a cold. And if the global economy is hit by another global recession as in 2008-2009, post-Brexit Britain may get an outright pneumonia. 

Did anyone really believe that being left out in the cold and in the rain would be good for your health. And did anyone believe that fog would be good for navigation?

Foggy weather (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 101 have been posted so far and another 60 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Is Brexit spilt milk or burnt milk?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 95. 

There is no use crying over spilt milk, say the British. If the bottle of milk is Britain's EU membership, spilt milk is Brexit. And once Brexit has been set in progress, it is difficult to reverse it, just like it is difficult to put back spilt milk into the bottle .So "don't cry over spilt milk" could also be used by Brexitteers when talking to Remainers: the 2016 referendum is the will of the people, EU membership is about to be over, get over it.

However, spilling milk is a relatively benign way of destroying the contents of a bottle. What if Brexit turns out to be not merely spilt milk but burnt milk? If you have ever burnt milk on a hot plate, you know how badly it stinks. What if Brexit causes damage to the economy just like burnt milk stinks up the whole house? What if the damage affects not only the British economy but also the EU, just like burnt milk in an apartment building can stink up all the neighbours?

Ireland, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Spain have a lot to lose in the case of Hard Brexit. So they are probably wondering: why did Britain have to spill its milk on a hot tin roof? Couldn't it have just poured it down the drain?

Milk bottle (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 95 have been posted so far and another 66 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Hard Brexit may bring Death by Coconut to Britain

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 65

Leaving the EU is presented by Brexiteers as easy: faraway lands must be longing for trade deals with the UK. Life after Brexit appears almost as easy and idyllic as a stroll in a grove of coconut trees. But if a falling ripe coconut hits you directly during such a stroll, you may be seriously injured or even die - what is commonly known as death by coconut.

Hard Brexit would deal Britain exactly this type of a blow. And if you don't like the death-by-coconut metaphor, Brazil nuts have an even more lethal effect on anyone who happens to be under the tree.

If only Brexit were a sentient person, Shakespeare might have advised: 

Neither a coconut, nor a Brazil nut be!

Coconut palm grove (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 65 have been posted so far and another 96 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

EU Facade shatters British Blind Spot in clash of Johari Windows

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 64

The UK and the EU are two Johari Windows, each with its own typical set of 4 quadrants: from "known knowns" to "unknown unknowns". 

1) British Johari Window:
In its interaction with the EU, the UK is in the Blind Spot quadrant: Britain thinks it has power in the negotiation while in reality it has limited clout. Because of the British Empire, the victory in the 2nd World War (WW2), the Commonwealth and the English language, Britain thinks it is still a great power, while  in the new world order it is merely a medium-sized country.

2) EU Johari Window:
In its interaction with the UK, the EU is in the Facade quadrant: It presents a strong position externally, but actually it knows that it is internally fragile. The EU is a global trading giant and sets global benchmarks for regulations and environmental standards but its member states (including the UK) have been passing on to Brussels the blame for any negative domestic policy for decades, commonly known as Brussels-bashing. As a result, the sustainability and survival of the EU is contingent on projecting external power to convince its constituent members that it is worth sticking with.

When elephants fight, the grass suffers. When windows collide, the glass shatters. The EU has held the high ground in the negotiations with the UK but if Britain's withdrawal spirals out of control into Hard Brexit, there will be many losers.

Diagram of Johari Window (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 64 have been posted so far and another 97 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
5. Thank you for being here!

Brexit advice: When you burn your bridges, don't run out of runway and burn yourself

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 61

Successful entrepreneurs apply a strategy called "burn your bridges": ensure that there is no turning back. This means you should stop doing anything else and should focus exclusively on your startup. 

There are two underlying reasons for this strategy: time and commitment. 
1) Time: burning your bridges, e.g. by quitting your day job, allows you to focus and allocate the time to work through all the iterations necessary to bring the startup to success. 
2) Commitment: if you don't burn your bridges, when the going gets tough you may be tempted to go back to your day job and abandon the startup unreasonably early.

Britain's enthusiasm to start new free trade agreements with faraway non-EU countries is commendable. Asia is the place where, on current trends, most of the growth will take place in the 21st century. So a strategy that focuses on Asia can be seen as Britain's "burn your bridges" approach: create a sense of urgency and look at the future, never looking back at the past.

However, entrepreneurs also have to take into consideration another factor called "runway", i.e. how long you can finance your startup's survival until it starts generating revenue or until you can raise more capital by selling equity. New projects usually require at least 6-12 months of runway.

Some Brexiteers are keen to deploy Hard Brexit and "burn Britain's bridges" with Europe. The problem is Britain's runway is severely limited: the country will run out of runway almost immediately if it crashes out of the EU without an agreement. So the UK may face a situation where it has burnt its bridges but in the process has set its own castle on fire.

Could Britain develop a strategic focus on Asia without burning its bridges with Europe? Couldn't "cakeism" (have your cake and eat it) be applied to trade with both Europe and Asia simultaneously? And if the UK had to choose, should it choose the bird in the sky rather than the bird in the hand?

Is there a different conclusion to this episode of the Brexit drama? Can anyone think of a justification for burning your bridges if you will run out of runway straight away and will burn yourself in the process.

So here is a final word of warning: when you burn your bridges, be careful not to burn your breeches, lest you end up a sans-culottes.

Tower Bridge, London (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 100 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexitos Nullis to Brexitos Brutalis: Evolution of Brexit in 5 Dog Latin names

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 46

If Brexit were a dinosaur, it would have evolved (or rather mutated) into at least five species since 2016, all aptly named in binomial nomenclature in Dog Latin:

1. Brexitos Norvegiensis: Norway model (membership of the Single Market)
2. Brexitos Canadiensis: Canada model (free trade deal with the EU)
3. Brexitos Theresamaysis: Brexit based on the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May
4. Brexitos Nullis: Annulled/Cancelled Brexit (revoking of the triggering of Article 50)
5. Brexitos Brutalis: disorderly Hard Brexit

Now, which Brexit is your favourite dinosaur?

Dinosaur clades/categories (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 115 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

The City of London had the best table in the EU. Post-Brexit it may move to the toilet.

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 45

For London's finance industry, EU membership was like arriving at a restaurant and sitting at the nicest table on a terrace overlooking the ocean, reserved especially for you. But then some guy called David Cameron brings you outside to give you the results of a referendum. And when you return to your table, it has been taken by others and the only table available is in a dark corner in front of the toilet.

Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Amsterdam are not yet sitting at the City of London's nice table on the terrace of the restaurant but are inching closer. And the City is not yet being pushed out to the toilet table but is feeling the Brexit uncertainty in a range of areas, from derivatives to euro clearing.

The above scenario is not even the worst. If an orderly departure from the EU will probably move the UK to the table in front of the toilet, a disorderly Hard Brexit will take it straight into the toilet. And there isn't much champagne and strawberries served inside a toilet. Not even a single strawberry, bar the odd memento.

A single strawberry on a toilet, 2018

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 116 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Hard Brexit parallels: West Berlin and the Continental Blockade

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 41

Hard Brexit poses the threat of turning the UK into a blank spot on the European map, in a way similar to how West Berlin was treated by East Germany, at least for a few years. Hard Brexit would resemble a self-imposed Napoleonic-style Continental Blockade, shutting out Britain from the crucial cross-border supply chains that modern industry and services depend on.

Map of West Berlin, as seen by East Germany (Source: Brilliant Maps)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 120 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.