Brexit Metaphor No 159
Game Theory can describe the Brexit process since the EU Referendum and scope out the final outcome.
When was the last time you played Rock-Paper-Scissors? If you are a British voter, you unknowingly played one round in the EU Referendum in 2016.
There are three possible moves in the game:
a) PAPER is membership of the EU, with its (according to The Sun) paper-pushing bureaucrats in Brussels.
b) SCISSORS is Hard Brexit, whereupon Britain severs its ties with the EU.
c) ROCK represents some form of association with the EU, e.g. via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement or via membership of the Single Market, the bedrock of European prosperity. The Withdrawal Agreement has also been a rock tied around the neck of the British Prime Minister.
1. In ROUND 1, British voters were given a choice in 2016 between PAPER (Remain in the EU) and SCISSORS (Leave the EU) and they chose SCISSORS. Populism triggered emotions which trumped rational choices, hence the SCISSORS outcome.
2. ROUND 2 (ROCK beats SCISSORS) has been a prolonged process of external and internal (within the Conservative Party) negotiations from 2017 to 2019 that is still being played out. The UK Parliament has indicated that Hard Brexit is not an option and even Hard Brexiteers are starting to accept that this cannot happen.
3. In ROUND 3 (PAPER beats ROCK), the forthcoming solution is still being threshed out but any deal with the EU will be inferior to the relationship that Britain already has with the EU as a member, which gives the UK a seat at the decision-making table. So a solution of either revoking Article 50 in view of the chaos of Brexit or putting the final deal to a Second Referendum may ultimately lead to the outcome of Britain remaining in the EU.
Yet, a key question remains: when do you stop playing? If the UK stays in the EU, would Brexiteers ask for a 3rd referendum or attempt to sabotage Britain's EU membership in other ways?
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| Rock-Paper-Scissors game (Source: Wikipedia) |
Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 159 have been posted so far and two more Brexit Metaphors will be published until the originally planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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