Living without the EU is like speaking without vowels

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 42

"Strč prst skrz krk" is a Czech sentence that contains no vowels. It means "to stick your finger in your throat" - and it is as hard to pronounce as it is to actually stick a finger in your throat.

In a similar way, could the UK re-create its world without the EU just as a sentence can do without vowels? And, if possible, would it be worth the effort?

US General Norman Schwarzkopf famously said during the Iraq war that "Going to war without France is like going hunting without an accordion." The joke aside, it does appear that you don't need an accordion when you go hunting. Yet you probably need vowels to speak. And if you are a European country on an island near a continent, detaching yourself from this continent is unlikely to be easy.

Accordion player (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 119 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Hard Brexit parallels: West Berlin and the Continental Blockade

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 41

Hard Brexit poses the threat of turning the UK into a blank spot on the European map, in a way similar to how West Berlin was treated by East Germany, at least for a few years. Hard Brexit would resemble a self-imposed Napoleonic-style Continental Blockade, shutting out Britain from the crucial cross-border supply chains that modern industry and services depend on.

Map of West Berlin, as seen by East Germany (Source: Brilliant Maps)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 120 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Great Brexit Leap Forward turns out to be a Leap in the Dark (Ages)

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 40

Brexit was supposed to free Great Britain from the shackles of a moribund EU and to "Make Britain Great Again".

Unfortunately this "Great Leap Forward" is turning out to be a "Leap in the Dark", at least according to the Bank of England, which is forecasting an 8% drop in GDP in case of Hard Brexit and a 30% drop in real-estate prices. China's original 1958-1962 Great Leap Forward led to a similar recession and to the destruction of 30-40% of the houses in the country (with one major difference: no mass casualties from starvation are expected in the UK this time).

Ironically, China performed these feats in an attempt to overtake Britain in industrial production in 15 years. Britain, in turn, is performing its own feat in an attempt to bring itself 15 years backwards. Will this leap in the dark become a leap towards the Dark Ages? Or merely a leap towards a new episode of the 1976 IMF bailout of the UK?

Leap in the dark (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 121 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Love, Marriage & Divorce: Britain's complex relationship with the EU

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 39

"Love them but don't marry them" has been Norway's approach to the EU for more than 40 years. Norway is a member of the EU Single Market and the Schengen zone, but not of the EU itself and of the EU Customs Union. This arrangement seems to be working for Norway just fine.

On the other hand, Brexit Britain is trying to learn to live by the mantra: "Divorce them but still love them."
Can you spot a logical fallacy here or shall we continue to eat cake and have cake... at Mr Bean's wedding?

Mr Bean's Wedding (Source: Wikia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 122 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Buying a plane ticket requires further steps of preparation. Or else, pray for teleportation!

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 38

If you decided to leave for somewhere and bought a plane ticket, what would you do next? Normally you would plan what luggage to pack, explore how to get to the airport, research ideas what to do when you get there, consider how much money you can spend, etc. No rocket science for most people. However, this hasn't been the case for the Leave campaigners in the UK Brexit process.

Brexiteers bought a ticket to "Leave" with 17.4 million votes. And then did nothing more for the next 2.5 years. So now, 4 months before Brexit day, instead of being at the airport waiting for boarding already, they are still at home considering their make-believe options: catapult or teleportation. Good luck with that!

Catapult (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 123 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit is blowing your nose - with a caveat

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 37

Brexit is like blowing your nose when you feel that it is clogged up with something. You don't need to be sure what that something is. But you'd better make sure that when you blow your nose, the output does not end up on your shirt sleeve.

Blowing your nose (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 124 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Britain is king but EU is queen in a grand game of chess

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 36

Brexiteers value unbounded sovereignty: they want Britain to be "king of the castle" on the world stage. However, in chess the king is merely a symbolical ruler while the most powerful piece is the queen, who can move in all directions.

In chess the EU is the queen, as she has many options open to her. In contrast, the UK's king has only a limited few. This balance of power clearly comes across in the UK-EU Brexit Agreement, which is expected to be signed off by the European Council tomorrow (Nov 25). The king gets an honourable but lesser status in this agreement. Long live the king!

King and Queen in chess (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 125 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Britain is hooked on European "umami". The alternative is rainwater.

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 35

Over 40+ years of EU membership, the UK got used to multiple benefits: free trade, common regulations, the Single Market and the status of a financial gateway to Europe. Britain got so used to these benefits that it could no longer recognise them as coming from or being dependent on Europe.

In a similar way, humans have for centuries been using foods rich in umami (the meaty taste of glutamate that receptors in the mouth can sense): tomatoes, mushrooms, seaweed, fish sauce, soy sauce, shellfish, cured meats, etc. The fact that the umami taste was not discovered until the 20th century did not stop people from seeking foods rich in umami. Yet, the scientific explanation of this phenomenon has led to the creation of many new recipes and approaches to enhancing the umami taste of foods.

Over 40 years of EU membership, Britain got hooked on "umami". However, umami does not rain from the sky. The benefits of the Single Market are, just like the compounds in fish sauce or in shiitake mushrooms, cultivated with great effort. And if they stop being grown and harvested, they will disappear.

If umami disappears from Britain's diet, it will not be as bad as leaving only sour and bitter tastes in. But the UK economy may just as well end up on a diet of rainwater.

Seaweed salad (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 126 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit is turning fancy edamame into mundane soya

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 34

Britain's privileged and beneficial relationship with the EU is about to be downgraded to a more ordinary smal-country-to-big-country relationship. Think Ukraine to Russia in the worst case, but without the prospect of war. This is like downgrading a premium food like edamame beans to its basic ingredient: soya beans.

Edamame is served in expensive restaurants, while soya is fed to pigs as animal feed. Essentially, these are the same thing, except that green soya (which is poisonous to humans in unprocessed form) needs to be blanched briefly to turn it into soft and delicious edamame beans.

Britain has decided it is unwilling to put up with the minimal processing that turns soya into edamame, i.e. with the procedures and responsibilities of EU membership that make a country a member of the Single Market and the Customs Union. So it is cutting off its nose to spite its face and shooting itself in the foot. Let's hope that, once the switch to soya is completed, the face and the foot will not turn into a pig's face and a pig's foot.

Edamame beans (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 127 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit is an eye-opener: metaphorical and physical

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 33

The last 2.5 years since the June 2016 Brexit referendum have been a metaphorical eye-opener on the complexity and significance of Britain's relationship with the EU. The next 4 months until Brexit day (March 29, 2019) can turn out to be a physical eye-opener.

On the metaphorical bit: who knew that Britain would be so willing to convert the much maligned 23,000 EU codes and regulations into British law in their entirety? Or that Britain would be so desperate to maintain access to the Single Market? Or that Britain would be so afraid of falling out of the tariff wall of the Customs Union?

On the physical bit: the next 4 months will show whether Britain will indeed stick a metal tool in its eye to prove... I am not sure what.

Hopefully the metaphorical eye-opener has opened the eyes of sufficient numbers of citizens and politicians to tip the balance in a debate polarised by fake news. For the rest, there is an apt movie title: Eyes Wide Shut.

Bottle opener (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 128 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

What Australia's Valley of Death can teach Brexit Britain's automotive industry

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 32

Adelaide (South Australia) used to be the hub of Australia's vibrant automotive industry for decades. However, various macroeconomic factors in the 21st century gradually made the industry uncompetitive and in 2017 the last car assembly plant in Australia shut down.

This is no big revelation: industries come and go, in line with Schumpeter's "creative destruction" theory. The big story here is what happens to the automotive workers. One Australian business school dean calls the 5-year period after the demise of an industry "the Valley of Death." It turns out it takes about five years for the regional economy and the workers laid off in one sector to find a new sector of employment.

In 2016 after the Brexit referendum I sat on a plane next to a BCG automotive industry consultant. Back then Nissan in the northeast of England was the big news story. The consultant did not think Nissan's plant was facing a major threat as the risk of a 10% tariff being imposed on British car exports to the EU was outweighed by the depreciation of the British pound. However, he thought the less efficient car plants in the Midlands would shut down if EU tariffs kicked in and their workers would not find a job again for the rest of their life.

A Valley of Death in the Midlands might sound like a "Middle Earth" scare story from The Lord of the Rings but is sadly a realistic prospect. Just look at other Rust Belt regions, from the US Midwest to northeast China. And it is not the heat that kills in the Valley of Death; it is idleness.

Car assembly line (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 129 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Communism and Brexit take you back to square one

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 31

"Communism is the longest path from capitalism to capitalism," jokes a marketing professor I know. The failed communism experiment took quite a few countries a few decades to realise that it didn't quite work as theory predicted.

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice there is. The hard Brexiteers are turning out to be pretty hard-core theoreticians: some are delusional, some are demagogues, and some are both. So let's hope that the failed Brexit experiment will end after only 2.5 years, making it just a short path from EU membership to EU membership.

Communist monuments in Kiev, Oct 2018

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 130 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit-land: a "green"-land chimera, bordering on the Pacific

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 30

The grass is always greener on the other side. The ocean is bluer. The sun is yellower. And the other side of the moon is even moonier.

Applying this train of thought (or rather thoughtlessness) to the world of trade, Theresa May now wants Britain to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) after Brexit. The Pacific is obviously "more Pacific" on the other side, or so they must be thinking in Westminster. Never mind that after Trump pulled the USA out of the TPP, it is considered a defunct project, at least for the time being.

Cooperation with several big economies on the Pacific Ocean is not a bad idea in its own right. The only problem is that this is being sold as a substitute to the EU, rather than as an addition. The benefits from partnering with a loose grouping of faraway countries are nowhere near comparable with the benefits of membership of the much more deeply integrated EU Single Market and Customs Union next door.

Believing that green-land is greener is a cognitive fallacy. Yet, chasing the wild goose or believing that pigs may fly has always been a human proclivity. Alas, politicians are human; and the populist ones are even "human-er". [sic]

The grass is always greener (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 131 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit for a Global Britain unites three promises: Jam Tomorrow, Mañana, Inshallah!

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 29

Michel Barnier tells a joke to Theresa May:
"How many Brexiteers does it take to change a light bulb? -
One to promise a brighter future and the rest to screw it up."

This is funny but unfortunately also very sad. Welcome to our oxymoronic world!

The unrealistic promises of Brexiteers can now come with global variations, worthy of a "Global Britain":

1. Jam Tomorrow (from Alice in Wonderland): you can have jam tomorrow and jam yesterday but never jam today. And it is always today when you ask for it. Have you seen anyone asking Donald Trump for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the USA these days?

2. Mañana, which in Spain and Latin America means not only tomorrow and later, but also years later. Britain is therefore going to enter into an FTA with all of Latin America mañana.

3. Inshallah! ("God willing" in Arabic): Muslims are required by the Quran to say this when speaking of future events. While non-Muslims say it to mean a 5% probability, give or take. More trade deals with the Gulf, Inshallah! (...though Saudi is currently a realistic prospect, give or take a murdered journalist.)

 

With all this in mind, it is important that UK citizens and residents should sign the "More United" petition: (https://www.moreunited.uk/real_brexit) which asks the British Government to carry out and publish an assessment of how the impact of the Brexit plan compares with the current EU membership of the UK. This petition is supported by Anna Soubry MP (Conservative) and Chuka Umunna MP (Labour).

How many Brexiteers are needed to change a light bulb (Source: Alex Grashkina)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 132 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Is Brexit friction or lubrication?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 28

Brexit has clearly been accompanied by a lot of friction so far, if not by outright explosions. Hard Brexiteers see this as they might see the role of friction in sex: more friction gives them more satisfaction. More friction also creates more foam under which they can hide the nakedness of their unsubstantiated promises of a bright future.

But what if a sensible Brexit might not be friction itself but rather the lubricating material that can smooth the transition and re-balance the relationship between the UK and the EU. What if Brexit were a piece of soap and the whole turmoil turns out to be just foam, made of the plethora of bubbles that Brexiteers have blown up?

Well, this does not bode well either for the soap, or for the bubbles. The more friction the bar of soap experiences, the more it is rubbed and chafed, the smaller it will get. And even if this comes with more foam, all the constituent tiny bubbles (Brexiteer lies) will eventually pop. Until one day the Brexit piece of soap may have shrunk into complete oblivion. Let's hope that this day comes before March 29, 2019.

Soap bubble about to burst (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 133 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Can Hard Brexit waterfall be made navigable with 5 sets of locks?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 27

Hard Brexit is as abrupt as the Victoria Falls on the Zambezi river. Britain's negotiations with the EU and Theresa May's Brexit Agreement this week are trying to make the Brexit falls navigable by building a series of navigation locks for businesses and people to continue sailing smoothly. These five locks are:

Lock 1: Two years for negotiation since triggering Article 50 in March 2017.
Lock 2: Transition period agreed for March 2019 to Dec 2020, during which nothing changes in practice.
Locks 3 and 4: Option for extending the Transition period or Backstop Option which maintains a UK-wide Customs Union with the EU to avoid a physical border in Ireland.
Lock 5: Future Free Trade Area (FTA) between the UK and the EU, to be negotiated after March 2019.

Provided these sets of locks survive the coming political turmoil in Britain, there is one question that remains unanswered:

Is the British ship on the Zambezi heading:
A) downstream towards the Indian Ocean?
OR
B) upstream towards the Kalahari Desert?

Theresa May in Parliament, Nov 15, 2018

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a daily #BrexitMetaphors series, with 134 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Can a country be "half-pregnant"? Or could Brexit be aborted?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 26

Some Brexiteers calling for a Hard Brexit say a woman cannot be "half-pregnant", so similarly either Britain is in the EU or it isn't. The fact that Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and Turkey continue to be various degrees of "pregnant" somehow escapes them.

If Brexit is the fetus of sovereign trade policy and the end to free movement, does this fetus have to be delivered on March 29, 2019? Or can Brexit be aborted?

Abortion law varies from country to country but in the vast majority of countries abortion is legal if it endangers the health of the mother (not only in the west but even in the Middle East). Additionally, abortion is usually legal on the grounds of fetal defects.

So given that Brexit has irreparable fetal defects and is endangering the health of the mother (Britain's economic prosperity), could it be aborted before March 29? The court case on how Article 50 can be suspended has recently been referred by Scotland's supreme court to the European Court of Justice. Now that the abortion case is with the medical doctors (the judges), the cat seems to be out of the bag.

Abortion law around the world (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a #BrexitMetaphors daily series, with 135 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Of Brexits and cracked phone screens

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 25

The text of the Brexit agreement is ready. But Brexit itself will create a fissure in the structures of the British economy and society. Or even a whole series of fissures.

This resembles a cracked smartphone screen: the device may still be functional but using it with a cracked screen lowers its value to the user and diminishes the social standing of the owner in the eyes of an external observer.

Britain will continue trading with the EU but it is hugely embarrasing for top British politicians and civil servants that they will no longer have a seat at the table after March 29, 2019.

Cracked screen (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a #BrexitMetaphors daily series, with 136 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Indefinite "Leave" to "Remain": another name for Soft Brexit fudge

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 24

Britain voted "Leave" in the 2016 referendum and is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. The British prime minister, however, is trying to negotiate a Soft Brexit deal under which Britain will remain in the EU Customs Union and possibly in the EU Single Market. The duration of this continuing membership is subject to debate but may well end up being indefinite. So, ironically, "taking back control" will mean that Britain is losing its voting seat at the table, while at the same time trying to keep things running as they are, not to disrupt its economy. From the UK's perspective this compromise solution (commonly known as fudge) sounds like an "indefinite Leave to Remain". While from the EU perspective, given that every member state is wielding a veto on a futre UK-EU trade agreement, the EU position is "leave me if you can".

Leave & Remain vote percentages in 2016 EU referendum (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a #BrexitMetaphors daily series, with 137 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, you are welcome to leave a comment below.

Brexit overreaction: Don't burn your house to get rid of the mouse

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 23

Britain was unhappy with some aspects of the functioning of the European Union. But rather than working from inside the EU to champion reform, the UK instead held a referendum in 2016 and opted to leave the EU. Unfortunately, in the process of preparing for Brexit, Britain has discovered this would mean shooting itself in the foot in many ways: economic, political, social, cultural, educational, etc. Many politicians and ordinary people alike are realising that the referendum and the Leave decision were clearly an overreaction: a case of "burning down your house to get rid of the mouse."

"Sometimes the solution is worse than the problem," sang the Pet Shop Boys in their song Twentieth Century. The cure is worse than the disease. Is there a meta-solution to this meta-problem? "Let's stay together," concluded the song. Or in Britain's case, keep chasing the mouse but don't burn down the house!

Mouse in the house (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a #BrexitMetaphors daily series, with 138 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a message below.

Brexit is sandpaper and toilet paper

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 22

There are two views of Brexit. One is Brexit is like sandpaper: the more it scratches and chafes Britain, the more rounded the country will eventually become, while the sandpaper will slowly be worn out and thrown away.

The other view is Brexit is like toilet paper, used by self-serving politicians to wipe themselves clean of political responsibility.

Isn't it possible that Brexit is both: sandpaper and toilet paper. Both will be discareded in the end but at least the sandpaper can bring about positive changes in the political process and a realisation of the importance of Britain's relationship with Europe.

Toilet paper (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. This article is part of a daily series, with 139 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: the author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a message below.

How did the Brexiteer seagulls become Hitchcock's "Birds"

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 21

What happens when you ignore the sign "Don't feed the seagulls" and start feeding them? They become vicious and start attacking people. This is exactly what has been going on with the Brexiteers in the last decade.

David Cameron was the person who fed the seagulls (the Brexiteers) on three major occasions:
1. He withdrew his Conservative Party from the European People's Party in the European Parliament in 2009 and thus lost power at EU level.
2. He promised to run a referendum on EU membership if he got re-elected in 2015. He didn't think he would win the UK elections but miraculously won.
3. He scheduled the referendum in June 2016 (in the aftermath of the 2015 Syrian migration crisis), when he needn't have done it until at least 2017.

We have all seen the outcome: the seagulls have become "The Birds" from Alfred Hitchcock's horror movie: vicious and aggressive. What can future generations of British politicians learn from this? Whatever you do, do not feed the seagulls.

"Don't feed the seagulls" warning, Whitby (UK), Nov 9, 2018

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Notes:
1. This article is part of a daily series, with 140 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: the author has a master's degree in European Integration.
3. If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a message below.

Stairs that go up also come down. So does Brexit.

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphors No 20

Stairs that can take you up should also normally be able to bring you down. That's common sense. But the guide in a guided tour of Wentworth Woodhouse (northern England) told me that he had been accused of misinformation by a tourist who fell down a flight of stairs. Apparently the guide did warn the group that the tour involved going up a lot of stairs but he did not tell them that they would also have to come back down.

Brexit is a similar story. There may be benefits from Brexit (depending on who you are and what industry you work in) but it is obvious that Brexit will entail significant disadvantages and cause damage to the economy and society. Yet, even though I am assuming that it is obvious, it may not be obvious to everybody, for example to the tourist who fell down the stairs at Wentworth Woodhouse.

And then there are cases (as in the Escher work below) where you simply cannot tell if the stairs are going up or down. When Estonia joined the EU in 2004 it had to switch from zero customs tariffs to the protective tariffs of the EU Customs Union. While some Brexiteers are calling for the opposite: that the UK should leave EU Customs Union and abolish all tariffs.

Is free trade good or bad? Is Brexit good or bad? It all depends on where you stand in the image below and at what angle you are holding your head. Yet, you need to have a head in the first place.

Relativity by M. C. Escher (Source: Wikipedia)

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This article is part of a daily series, with 141 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.
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Disclosure: the author has a master's degree in European Integration.

Brexit is as fractal as Russian dolls

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 19

Russian dolls are a fractal hierarchy: the biggest doll contains a smaller one, the smaller doll contains a tiny one, etc. Many other things in nature are fractal: snowflakes, coastlines, even broccoli.

Brexit resembles Russian dolls in such a fractal sense. Article 50 sets out the rules for leaving the EU, but Article 50 itself can be stopped with a tacit "Article 50" of sorts: with the agreement of the other EU member states.

Similarly, the draft backstop Customs Union agreement that is supposed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will likely contain its own backstop: the rules on how the UK can withdraw from the backstop Customs Union with the EU.

There was a referendum for Brexit in 2016 and now there may be a referendum to stop Brexit. That's as fractal as Yin & Yang gets. So why don't we just brexit from Brexit?

The world is fractal. So is Brexit politics: darkness in light, light in darkness.

Fractals: Mandelbrot set (Source: Wikipedia)

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 142 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit Britain is Chicago in winter (not a musical)

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 18

US airlines that fly to and from Chicago in the winter tend to segregate the city in their network to minimise the potential for disruption. Chicago O'Hare airport is prone to winter shutdowns because of bad weather, so airlines use dedicated planes to fly back and forth, in and out of Chicago only (rather than using a Chicago plane for a later flight between a different pair of cities). So if Chicago has a problem, only flights to/from Chicago are affected, while the rest of the airline network keeps running.

"Chicago" is a good strategy for British SMEs that depend on exports and imports. Given the uncertainty of Britain's trading arrangements post-Brexit, companies can segregate their British operations from their European/global business: the British subsidiary will cover only the UK market while the EU subsidiary will cover everywhere else. Ironically, the EU subsidiaries may end up reaping a Brexit bonus in growth and expansion as they would be operating in an unchanged (and preferential) trading framework not only with the rest of the EU but also with the rest of the world. While the segregated UK operations will need to wait and see what the future Arctic weather holds in store.

Airport in winter (Source: Wikipedia)

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 143 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit is fudge - burnt fudge

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 17

Britain is great at making fudge. This includes both the caramel sweet and the metaphorical fudge: muddling through and arriving at vague and fuzzy deals. One might blame for the second variety Britain's traditions in diplomacy or the British penchant for sitting on the fence. Irrespective of the cause, the effect is fudge.

Given the huge constraints and disadvantages that Britain faces in the negotiations with the EU, any Brexit agreement will be "fudge". The problem of making fudge is that if you cook it too long you may burn it. So after 2.5 years of cooking the same fudge, Britain has probably burnt it already. We don't know yet but we'll find out by January 2019 at the latest if the fudge is burnt beyond being edible. And if that's the case, the chances of a meaningful Brexit agreement go into the bin like burnt fudge.

British fudge (Source: Wikipedia)

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 144 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit is a bed of roses - all thorns, no flowers

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 16

Brexit is a bed of roses. Kind of. Brexiteers dream of "taking back control" of their island garden. The garden is full of rose bushes which sounds very promising. The only problem is the plants don't have any flowers - only thorns.

For all the lauded benefits of Brexit, none has shown any promise of flowering or bearing fruit so far. Instead, all that has come out are problems and suboptimal outcomes worse than the status-quo. So even generous rose gardeners (i.e. Brexit donors) like Aaron Banks are now starting to change their tune to "Brexit is not worth it".

Theresa May, the chief gardener of the roses-turned-thorns project, is visibly tired after more than two years of having her fingers pricked by Brexit thorns right, left and centre. Will she get any respite if Brexit does take place on March 29, 2019?

Rose thorns (Source: Wikipedia)

 
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(This article is part of a daily series, with 145 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Post-Brexit trade negotiations: When chased by a bear, don't be the slowest one

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 15

When you are being chased by a bear, you don't need to run faster than the bear; you only need to run faster than the slowest member of your group. At least that's what experienced girl and boy scouts will tell you. Sadly, this advice comes too late for Brexiting Britain, which voluntarily agreed to become the slowest among all EU member states: for the last two years and for the foreseeable future.

The world of international trade is not a peaceful sunlit meadow of flowers and bees; it is a dark forest where the big bears are chasing the slower animals: where global trading powers are constantly and ruthlessly jostling for influence and wealth.

Organisations and societies have formal hierarchies and informal pecking orders. Britain used to be at the top of the totem pole in the EU, despite what Brexiteers might tell you. But any future trade deal that Britain may negotiate with the EU can be vetoed by even the smallest EU country: Malta, Luxembourg or Cyprus.

Being outside the EU's protective tent exposes Britain to multiple bears from across the world: from trading giants like the US, China, Japan and Russia, to mini bears like New Zealand or Chile, which are all demanding their pound of flesh in the renegotiation of WTO quotas.

Is there a solution for the UK? Maybe get back into the EU tent and stay in the EU Customs Union after all.

Brown bear (Source: Wikipedia)

 
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(This article is part of a daily series, with 146 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

The Single Market is an IKEA bookcase, not a Lego set

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 14

Access to the Single Market has been described by the EU as a "set menu", not an "a-la-carte" choice for Britain. However, the focus of these two metaphors is the price you pay for dinner. While the Single Market is much more than that.

Creating a Single Market is like assembling an IKEA bookcase, not like playing with a Lego set. With Lego bricks, you can use as many or as few as you like; arrange them in any way that you like; and the outcome is open-ended. In contrast, when you order an IKEA bookcase, you have to use all parts (bar the odd screw that you can skip); assemble them in a strict sequence; and the outcome is the standard Billy bookcase that you ordered.

Lego bricks (Source: Wikipedia)

 
The odd screw that you can skip when assembling an IKEA bookcase is like Norway's 98% membership of the Single Market: covering everything except agricultural products. Yet, Norway pays the full price for the "Single Market" bookcase.

This is what Brexiteers fail to understand: if you order an IKEA bookcase, you pay the price for the entire set; you don't get to haggle over each and every panel and dowel.

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 147 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit is a bruise of many colours

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 13


Brexit is a bruise. Bruises first turn red as capillaries break under the skin. Then purplish-blue as the red blood cells start to break down. Then yellow-green as the haemoglobin of the damaged blood cells is converted into bilirubin.

Brexit has gone through similar colour phases: from the drawing of red lines, to softer hues, to the current version of "a whimper of a Brexit" facing a green constraint: the threat of an Irish veto over the Irish border.

Bruised eye healing over 9 days (Source: Wikipedia)

 

The yellow-coloured waste product of the healing process, bilirubin, is recycled by the body into bile and used in digestion. Interestingly, bilirubin gives faeces their characteristically brown colour. Might this transformation also have a Brexit parallel in a certain straw-haired Leave leader with ambitions to become prime minister?

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 148 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)