The hours don't matter for EU accession. The minutes do for EU withdrawal

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 132 

When Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU on January 1, 2007, they joined at 00:00 (midnight) Bulgarian and Romanian time. This was still 23:00 Central European Time (CET) on December 31, 2006  (and 22:00 GMT in London) but the one-hour time difference with Brussels did not bother anyone. The EU accession treaty for Bulgaria and Romania does not specify the exact hour and simply stipulates January 1 as the accession date in all 23 official EU languages.

On the other hand, when the UK triggered Article 50 on March 29, 2017, it was told by Brussels that the date and hour of formal withdrawal from the EU would be 00:00 (midnight) CET on March 30, 2019, which is awkwardly 23:00 GMT on March 29 in London. Britain tried to negotiate a midnight GMT withdrawal but failed. Symbolically, Brussels was setting the terms.

These principles have also been visible in trade and regulatory talks: when two sides are converging, the precise details are not important. However, when diverging, all the minutiae come to the surface (in 60-minute increments).

Clock (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 132 have been posted so far and another 29 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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Britain wants Brexit to be a sauna. It may turn out an oven

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 131 

Brexit is a sauna that may turn out to be an oven. It is vaunted by Brexiteers as bringing health benefits, i.e. it is expected to energise the British economy, just like a sauna is supposed to strengthen the health of the sauna-goer. However, with Brexit, Britain will relinquish control over the Number 1 economic relationship it has: with the EU. Ironically, "taking back control" means giving up control. Thus, handing over the thermostat of the sauna to the EU may turn the sauna into an oven. And we all know what goes into the oven: your dinner.

If you are not at the table, you are on the menu!

Sauna (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 131 have been posted so far and another 30 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Brexit is bird in the bush. EU membership is bird in the hand

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 130 

Brexit is the proverbial "bird in the bush" - not worth as much as the "bird in the hand", also known as EU membership.

There are linguistic studies on this proverb. Interestingly, it turns out that in more stable Europe, the ratio is 2:1 birds in the bush vs birds in the hand. However, in more unstable regions such as Latin America, the ratio goes up: a a bird in the hand is worth many more birds in the bush (or birds in the sky). In volatile Colombia, the proverb goes: "Más vale pájaro en mano, que ciento volando." (A bird in the hand is worth more than 100 in flight.)

Brexit is a recursive phenomenon: it is a promise for a brighter future ("bird in the bush") which ironically is creating more instability and is thus decreasing the value of the "bird in the bush". Promises and political talk are getting cheaper with the increase in the supply of birds fluttering in the bush which never actually get caught in the hand. Luckily, at least the bird in the hand is still in the hand until March 29, with the possibility of holding on to it for longer if Article 50 is delayed or cancelled.

Birds in the sky (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 130 have been posted so far and another 31 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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In European version of hell, Britain may switch to manufacturing

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 129 

There is a joke about the European versions of heaven and hell. 

In the European version of heaven:
a) the British are the police;
b) the French are the cooks;
c) the Germans are the mechanics;
d) the Italians are the lovers;
e) and the Swiss make everything run on time.

In the European version of hell:
a) the British are the cooks;
b) the French are the mechanics;
c) the Germans are the police;
d) the Swiss are the lovers;
e) and the Italians make everything run on time.

Britain, France and Germany take each other's place in the heaven-and-hell merry-go-round / musical chairs (police, cooks and mechanics). But might Brexit actually disturb the existing fine balance in national specialisations: 
a) services in the UK; 
b) lifestyle and luxury goods in France; 
c) manufacturing for Germany?

If Britain's dominant services inudstry (financial, professional services, etc.) suffers as a result of Brexit, would Britain then be able to start focusing more on manufacturing? And what repercussions might this have on the competitiveness of the German manufacturing exports model?

Fresco of hell (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 129 have been posted so far and another 32 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
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EU is industrial chemistry. Brexit is alchemy

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 128 

The EU is to European prosperity what industrial chemistry is to the modern economy: an important foundation of industry that is nowadays entirely hidden from view. As a result of the lack of visibility, very few people understand or even suspect that such elaborate chemical manufacturing processes exist and at such a large scale. Similarly, few people can appreciate the complexity and interlinkages within the EU.

On the other hand, Brexit is alchemy: a series of experiments that aim to create gold in the most unscientific way.

Chemicals (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 128 have been posted so far and another 33 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Brexit is fireworks. EU membership is the stars

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 127.

Brexit is like fireworks: flashy and visible, expensive (costly) to put on, and with ephemeral benefits. 

EU membership is like the stars: stable and lasting, low-key, and helpful in providing direction to navigators across the world.

The Brexit fireworks can outshine the star-studded firmament of EU membership but only as long as there are fireworks left to explode. Once the fireworks are used up and the smoke settles, the stars in the sky will be visible again. Because fireworks exist to provide a show, while the stars set an ideal at which people and organisations with a higher purpose aim: "aim for the stars."

New Year's fireworks in London, Jan 2012

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 127 have been posted so far and another 34 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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EU is a metro rail network; Brexit Britain will be a metrobus line

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 126.

Japanese investors are pulling out of the UK: Nissan, Honda, Panasonic. That's no surprise given that the Japanese prize certainty and stability.

When real estate developers plan major investments, the metro/underground railway lines in a city are a major consideration where to invest. In many megacities in emerging markets, however, the metrobus is a cheaper and equally efficient public transport alternative to the underground. Yet, metrobus lines are no good for a real estate developer because these are built on roads and the road can be re-purposed easily, so a commitment by a local government to maintaining the metrobus line in its current location cannot be taken for granted. While an underground line of railway tracks is unlikely to be moved anywhere else.

The EU provides the certainty of an underground railway network to a foreign investor while Britain is suggesting it wants to operate as a cheaper metrobus line after Brexit. Britain wants to emulate the dynamism of emerging markets, so a metrobus sounds about right, right? But guess which of the two a real estate developer would prefer to deal with? Or a Japanese carmaker?

Metrobus Istanbul (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 126 have been posted so far and another 35 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Men cannot be trusted with giant trucks and with sensible Brexit policies

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 125. 

Female drivers of giant mining haul trucks are gentler in using the gears of the machines compared with male drivers, which reduces maintenance costs. Female operators are also more likely to respond to alarm lights, resulting in 50% fewer work injuries compared with male drivers.

In the Brexit context, only 21-22% of women in Britain support a No Deal Brexit, while the number goes up to 33-34% among men, the latest research by The Economist and YouGov shows.

It does sound like women are more responsible in both the mining industry and in managing Brexit...except for a certain female Prime Minister who shall remain anonymous.

Haul truck (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 125 have been posted so far and another 36 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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A tale of two Europes: hero and villain

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 124. 

From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, a Brexit Curtain has descended across the continent. Not Churchill's "Iron Curtain"; a Brexit Curtain!

The Brexit Curtain is not only a British phenomenon, from Newcastle to Wales and from Lincoln to Cornwall. It is a pan-European theme - but it can be more or less diffuse in different member states.

The problem of Europe is it is actually two Europes. They are the same Europe on the surface, but they are different relative to where you stand as an observer, just like the two EU flags on the photo below. If you are on the right, you look left and you see a leftist Europe. If you are on the left, you look right and you see a rightist Europe. "The grass is always greener on the other side" and unfortunately "the sky is the limit" in making such comparisons.

I called this the "punchbag effect" in December and I called it the "sitting in the middle problem" in February. But it is not only a blame game; it is a matter of perception at every level. Because Europe is so diverse, if you want to see the EU as bureaucratic, imperialist, ultra-capitalist, liberal elitist, socialist or whatever else, you would find some fodder for any such thoughts. But if you were to apply the key EU principle of proportionality and assessed the relative weight of these phenomena, you would find that few such arguments hold up against scrutiny.

The Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell declared Churchill a villain in mid-February because he had quelled a Welsh riot in which one miner died in 1910. This was a flagrantly disproportional statement. And so have Brexiteers declared the EU a villain on many even flimsier grounds. Churchill won the war in 1944-45 and the EU won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. Hero or villain, ultimately you decide what to think.

Two EU flags near Sloane Square, London, Feb 16, 2019

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 124 have been posted so far and another 37 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Scraping mould off jam can mean scrapping Brexit

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 123. 

Scraping mould off jam appears to be one of Theresa May's few hobbies. If the jam is the EU (which has been providing sugar and fruit for the British economy for over 40 years) and the mould is Brexit (which has been festering for 2.5 years now), then surely scraping the mould equals stopping Brexit.

What do you do with a mouldy cake then? Eat it or have it, it is mouldy anyway. So perhaps give it to Boris Johnson to have and to hold until Brexit us do part.

Mouldy cake (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 123 have been posted so far and another 38 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Britain is a seagull that wants to eat on its own. But can it catch fish alone?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 122. 

Seagulls fly in flocks when hunting for fish in the sea or scavenging at landfill sites. However, as soon as they catch something, they dash off on their own away from the flock so that no other seagull would steal their catch.

You may know the phrase "run with the hares, hunt with the hounds." In this case, the seagulls are behaving in a way that can best be described as "hunt with the hounds, eat without the hounds."

Britain went hunting together with Europe in 1973 and has since managed to snatch a few tasty morsels thanks to Europe's vast and wealthy hinterland: financial services, professional services, pharmaceuticals, IT, aerospace, automotive, etc. And now Brexiting Britain wants to consume and digest these morsels on its own. But how likely are these to be sustained and maintained after leaving the EU? Or could it turn out that the proverbial "moving bicycle" theory which is often used to describe the EU ("stop moving forward and it collapses") would be even more relevant as a description for the export-dependent industrial and services sectors of the British economy? No Europe, no finance. No Europe, no pharma.

It sounds like Britain is heading towards a hybrid-proverb scenario after March 29: "Hunt without the hounds, eat garbage on a landfill."

Seagulls (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 122 have been posted so far and another 39 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Pre-Brexit British politics is like empty champagne glasses: hard to carry and easy to topple

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 121. 

A waiter once told me that empty champagne glasses are the hardest thing to carry on a tray: they are top-heavy and can easily topple over and crash on the floor.

British politics under Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn has been a tray of empty champagne glasses for a third year running: there are hardly any meaningful policies in the heads of the political elite of the UK at present. Brexit seems to have drained all the blood from the body of the British political system, to the degree that the resulting anemia makes almost every MP slow-moving and dizzy. 

Could the onset of Brexit on March 29, 2019 actually pour back champagne into the glasses and "bring back movement forward", if you'll pardon the oxymoron?

Waiter with champagne glasses, The Wallace Collection, London, 27.10.2018

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 121 have been posted so far and another 40 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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If you give foxes and Brexiteers a platform to step on, they will open your rubbish bin

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 120. 

Foxes are clever animals, as the photo below from Birmingham can attest. In Britain the one-metre tall plastic rubbish bins for household waste in the street are designed to be fox-proof: the lid covers the bin fully so there is no space on top of the bin where a fox can stand and try to lift the lid. However, if you put the bin next to a fence at the height of the bin, the fox can use the fence as a platform to step on and then can easily lift the lid.

The 2016 EU Referendum gave Brexiteers exactly this type of a platform. With its help, they managed to lift the lid of the rubbish bin of the UK-EU relationship and scattered the garbage across the street. This rubbish has been out for almost three years now.

British urban fox trying to get to a rabbit (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 120 have been posted so far and another 41 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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When doing a refurb, better know where your electricity and plumbing are running

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 119. 

In 2016 the British people decided in a referendum to refurbish the UK house. People liked the idea of getting new furniture, a new kitchen and hanging up new paintings on the walls. However, the residents of the house had long ago forgotten where the plumbing and the electrical wiring ran. So every time someone tried to drive a nail in the wall, they would either spring a leak or get electrocuted.

Electrical wiring (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 119 have been posted so far and another 42 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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May's Brexit plan is riddled with bullet holes like British WW2 plane, yet key plan is still missing

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 118. 

Theresa May's 10th defeat in Parliament over Brexit on February 14 shows there was no love lost between her and her MPs on Valentine's Day. Her Brexit plans keep coming back riddled with votes against her like British RAF fighter planes coming back from missions in World War Two riddled with bullet holes from German anti-aircraft fire. Her fundamental mistake is that she is trying to fix the bullet holes, which are not essential. Instead, she should be tackling the life-or-death matter.

One of the most fundamental moments in the science of statistics comes from one such episode in World War Two, when the RAF decided to armour up its planes to better protect them from enemy fire. The instinctive decision was to count the bullet holes in different parts of planes returning from mission and reinforce the areas that got hit most often. However, this was an obvious but wrong decision, as mathematician Abraham Wald higlighted at the time. If a plane came back safely, the number of bullet holes did not matter as holes in areas such as the wings indicated non-essential damage. What really mattered were the areas that did not contain bullet holes on surviving planes (the engines and the propellers), as the planes that got hit in exactly those areas would not have survived at all and would not have returned to base to be included in the study sample.

Theresa May should similarly ask herself what Brexit deals she has not managed to bring back to Parliament, rather than trying to armour up the damaged areas of the deal that she has brought back. A deal containing a second EU referendum (People's Vote) or a negotiated Customs Union would be the essential missing planes in her fleet returning from the Continent.

RAF Avro Lancaster plane from WW2 (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 118 have been posted so far and another 43 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
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Did British voters dial 112 or 999 in the 2016 EU referendum

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 117. 

The 2016 EU referendum was an emergency call for many voters. But what number did they dial?

In the EU the emergency number is 112. In the UK, the emergency number was traditionally 999, though 112 also works equally well.

It is difficult to dial 112 by mistake because you have to move your finger from one number to the next - and that's the rationale for selecting 112 as the number for this purpose. On the other hand, it is common for people to dial 999 by mistake - what is known as pocket dialling or butt dialling - as repeatedly pressing the same number three times would not be difficult when your phone is in your pocket.

So, did British voters dial 112 or 999 on June 23, 2016? And did they really mean it?

UK emergency number 999 (Source: Wikipedia)

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Notes:
1. Timeline: This article is part of a series of original #BrexitMetaphors published daily. A total of 117 have been posted so far and another 44 Brexit Metaphors will be published every day until the planned Brexit date of March 29, 2019.
2. Disclosure: The author has a master's degree in European Integration. He also thinks he knows a bit about business, economics, entrepreneurship, China, history, geography, nature, science and Rubik Cubes.
3. Invitation: If you'd like to contribute to the debate, please leave a comment below or re-tweet the blogpost link.
4. Sign-up: I would be thrilled if you signed up to receive my blog daily by entering your email address in the blank in the top right-hand corner of this page.
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