Brexit is a spaghetti junction gone wrong

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 12

Brexit feels like mistakenly getting off the motorway at a spaghetti junction and then not being able to get back on the motorway until you have driven through every single ribbon of the spaghetti. Brexit got Britain off the motorway of focused economic and social policies with the 2016 referendum. The British Government has been traipsing every single ribbon of this spaghetti junction ever since.

Spaghetti junction, Provence, southern France

 
Yet, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is possible that after all the circling around on the spaghetti junction, Britain may still miss the final exit for Brexit in March 2019 and remain on the motorway to Europe.

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 149 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

A tale of two islands: Japan & Madagascar

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 11

Some Brexiteers claim Britain after Brexit can be a global and prosperous trading nation off the coast of Western Europe: just like Japan, off the coast of East Asia. There are a few differences though. One major disparity is Japan's size: twice bigger than Britain. Imagine if France and the UK were a single country: they would need to trade less externally, as they would be trading more amongst themselves.

The other peculiar feature of Japan's economic success is that once it had created its own informal version of EFTA, it held on to it. Japan's "EFTA" is known as the "Flying Geese Model": as Japan industrialised, it was gradually transferring industries with lower value added to swathes of neighbours: first to Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore; then to Malaysia and Thailand; then to Indonesia; and last to China (which almost broke the model). In contrast, the UK is not at the front of any flock of flying birds (although the City of London has pervasive presence in European finance).

Map of Madagascar (Source: Wikipedia)

Take the other island in this metaphor: Madagascar. Thanks to its relative isolation, it is the only major peaceful country in the world that has failed to see any increase in living standards over the last 5-6 decades.

Britain seems to be facing interesting choices of economic models for the future: the reality will probably be less extreme than Japan or Madagascar, but hopefully not as troubled as Puerto Rico either.

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 150 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit: a bottomless Eton mess

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 10

I was offered Bottomless Eton Mess at an Indian restaurant last night: as soon as you finish a bowl of Eton mess, they bring you another one, for no extra charge. It felt like the perfect Brexit metaphor:  Eton graduates David Cameron and Boris Johnson got us into the current mess and there seems to be no end in sight.

Eton Mess (Source: Wikipedia)

 
The other apt parallel between Eton mess and Brexit is that this otherwise delicious dessert looks like it has been regurgitated multiple times already.

Plus, it makes a great slogan for a political rally or a march for a 2nd referendum:
Bottomless!
Eton mess!

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 151 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit is a barrel of Marmite and Dynamite

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 9

Brexit is Marmite with a large sprinkling of dynamite. Love it or hate it, either way it is very explosive.

Marmite (Source: Wikipedia)

The second jar of Marmite on the photo is Guinness for a reason: the Irish Border is probably the most explosive part of the Brexit process, in more than one way.

Brexit was supposed to be a bed of roses but is gradually turning into an entire barrel full of Marmite and dynamite. And we now have to live in this parallel reality that brings together Diogenes of Sinope (who lived in a barrel) and an ancient Chinese torture.

Happy Halloween!

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 152 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Boris is a dog peeing on a fire hydrant

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 8

Boris Johnson's attacks on the EU resemble a dog peeing on a fire hydrant. Never mind that the hydrant has a function and a purpose. For the dog, the hydrant's only purpose is to provide the opportunity to mark political territory.

Dog peeing on fire hydrant (Source: Wikipedia)

(This article is part of a daily series, with 153 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Brexit is an interplay of ignorance and confidence, a la Dunning-Kruger

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 7

Remember when Geri Halliwell left the Spice Girls because she thought she would have an amazing solo career? This is what a clever Remainer put on a poster at the People's Vote March in London on October 20.

Poster at People's Vote March (Photo : Eoin O'Callaghan)

 
There is something called the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis. It basically says:

"Smart people don't know how smart they are, so they overestimate the others. 

Dumb people don't know how dumb they are, so they overestimate themselves." 

Charles Darwin put it similarly: "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."

Isn't Brexit a classic example of such ignorance-begotten confidence?




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(This article is part of a daily series, with 154 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Throwing darts in a bouncy castle does not make a smooth Brexit

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 6

When several children are playing, the game often breaks down because they cannot agree on the rules: are they playing hide and seek with elements of tag or are they playing tag with a bit of hide and seek? When a child decides it suits them no more, they simply bail out. On the other hand, adults normally play more responsibly, even when there is a gambling element to it.

Adults playing mahjong in a back alley in Macau, October 25, 2018

 
For many Brexiteers, the EU is a game with rules that no longer suit them. Yet, they don't want to leave the bouncy castle just yet. They simply want to play darts inside it. Throwing darts in a bouncy castle is not very different from throwing stones when living in a glass house. But usually this is the point where the parents from Brussels step in and put an end to all childish shenanigans.

(This article is part of a daily series, with 155 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

Three blind men walk into a Brexit referendum

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 5

Three blind men were once asked to describe an elephant. One touched the trunk and said it felt like a snake. One touched a leg and thought it was a a tree. One touched the tail and said it was like a rope.

Three blind men and an elephant (Source: Wikipedia)

46.5 million people were once asked to vote in a Brexit referendum. One saw a poster of Syrian refugees and concluded the EU had a problem with migration. One saw a bus promising to divert £350 million a week from the EU to the NHS and liked the idea. One read an article about the eurozone and decided that the euro was doomed and so was EU competitiveness. One heard from someone at a flea market that Brussels had banned curvy bananas and bristled at the administrative excess of unelected bureaucrats.

Few of those 46.5 million people were blind. But so many of them would still struggle to describe the EU "elephant". And if their descriptions make no sense, should we have them in Zoology textbooks and David Attenborough documentaries?

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(This article is part of a daily series, with 156 more Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019.)

UK: big fish in a small pond may become fish out of water?

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 4

Many Brexiteers see global Britain as a big fish that has outgrown its small EU pond. They want the UK to swim in the ocean instead: an ocean of unbounded sovereignty and chimerical free trade. Ironically, Britain may thus end up on the wrong side of economic history. Big fish that leave their pond sometimes end up out of water, e.g. by leaving all EU trade agreements behind without having a single free-trade agreement with any other country. Or a big fish may find itself in an ocean full of sharks: where giants like China or the US can eat a British tuna for breakfast. But don't worry: the giants do not necessarily want to devour Britain - they may just want to take it out of the water for a day or two to measure it up. Oops!

Fish out of water (Source: Wikipedia)

 
(157 more daily Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019)

A tale of three cities: Singapore-on-Thames, Minsk-on-Trent, Venice-on-Severn

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 3

Brexiteers dream of turning Britain into a deregulated free-trade paradise commonly referred to as "Singapore-on-Thames". Remainers fear isolation and economic decline will convert the UK into "Minsk-on-Trent". The most likely outcome from Brexit is probably somewhere in the middle: I call it "Venice-on-Severn".

Westminster Bridge in 1747, painted by Canaletto (Source: Wikipedia)

Singapore-on-Thames is a pipe dream, given the political traditions of the UK, the recent rise of Corbynism and the size of the country. Minsk-on-Trent is a bugbear: even under Corbyn as a possible future prime minister, the UK is unlikely to slide into authoritarian rule. However, Venice-on-Severn is, sadly, a realistic prospect.

Venice lost its prime position as the trading and banking hub of Europe in the 1500s after the Ottomans cut off access to Middle Eastern trade routes and the resulting Age of Discovery definitively moved trade flows from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic. Venice did not disappear completely but it was reduced to the status of a "museum of nostalgia" for rich European (and now Chinese) tourists.

The UK is about to give up voluntarily many of its European supply chain networks (including all manufacturing that depends on just-in-time delivery from Europe) and will hand over a chunk of the thriving financial sector of the City of London to European competitors Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Dublin.

However, Paddington Bear, the Loch Ness Monster, the Queen, James Bond and Sherlock Holmes will still be around, in case you are a tourist and started wondering. While Winnie-the-Pooh may finally get his own Doge's Palace.

(158 more daily Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019)

EU membership: life vest for UK's economy

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor No 2

Boris Johnson wrote this in September: "We have wrapped a suicide vest around the British constitution - and handed the detonator to [EU Brexit negotiator] Michel Barnier." In fact, the European Economic Community (EEC), which preceded the EU, had put a life vest on the moribund British economy in the 1970s.

Life vest (Source: Wikipedia)

After the Second World War, Germany, France and Italy were developing much faster than the UK thanks to the positive effect of the overhaul of their post-war social order. Economist Mancur Olson puts this in stark contrast with what he calls "the British disease". As one of the winners of the war, Britain did not go through deep social changes. Riddled with a sclerotic economy, the UK was on its knees, begging for EEC membership in the hope of kick-starting growth. After two vetoes by Charles de Gaul, Britain got "third time lucky" and was admitted to the club. The life vest offered by the Europeans, followed by Thatcher's deregulation and Blair's further liberalisation, made the UK a global success story.

(159 more daily Brexit Metaphors to follow until Brexit day, March 29, 2019)

Brexit: Shredder of British economic prosperity and international influence

By George ILIEV
Brexit Metaphor 1 of 161
161 days to Brexit: an Advent calendar of ignominy

Banksy self-shredded one of his artworks (Love Is in the Bin) on October 5, supposedly in jest.
Britain started shredding its economic prosperity and international influence in earnest on June 23, 2016 and has been stepping up the process in the ensuing political chaos.

Photo credit: Eoin O'Callaghan, People's Vote March, London, October 20, 2018
(Creative placard resembling the half-shredded Banksy artwork)

Brexit can be described as harakiri or self-flagellation. However, shredding is a more apt metaphor. Harakiri requires a single sword and leaves you dead; self-flagellation is done with a whip in self-denial or out of remorse; while shredding renders the object unrecognisable from its former self and is done with a machine with tiny razors. Britain will not disappear with Brexit but every strand of its economy and society will be impacted.

How many are the razors in the shredder, you might ask? At least 35: the 35 chapters of EU law (acquis communautaire). Even areas where the EU has little jurisdiction, e.g. education or healthcare, will be impacted significantly, e.g. by cutting off the access of British students to Erasmus scholarships, isolating British universities from EU research networks, or making it more difficult for the NHS to hire medical personnel.

Britain's international isolation is starting to show. But the biggest humiliation will take place when any small EU member state, as small as Malta or Cyprus, decides to veto any future UK-EU trade deal or other agreement, simply because it can. If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.

Solutions? How about a double metaphor:
Shred the shredder!

Or simply put, stop Brexit.

Can a metaphor a day keep Brexit at bay?

By George ILIEV

Brexit day, March 29, 2019, is scheduled to take place 161 days away. To mark this unfortunate and sad occasion, I am launching on the day of the London anti-Brexit rally (Oct 20) this Brexit Metaphors blog: an "Adventskalender" of sorts, if you'll pardon the German term.

AdventsKalender (Source: Wikipedia)

This blog is a metaphorical countdown to the UK's "harakiri" moment, if you'll pardon the Japanese term. It has been more than two years ago since Britain decided to put an end to its "Dolce Vita" in Europe, if you'll pardon the Italian term. The humiliation is ongoing but in contrast with the humiliation of losing a war that the Germans, the Japanese and the Italians experienced at the end of World War Two, Britain's self-destruction is happening in peace time. 

I dedicate this blog in particular to Boris Johnson, who has produced a number of Sunday metaphors to conveniently feather his political nest, for himself and for his birds-of-a-feather. The Brexit leaders are no Hitler or Mussolini but many of them have been exposed as remarkably self-serving, politically-ambitious ego-maniacs (some relevant animal metaphors may come later). Unfortunately for Boris, feathering a political nest with Irish shamrock, Scottish thistle, German steel and French leaves* is proving difficult. This blog aims to help turn Boris's "have your cake and eat it" into "a rock and a hard place".

I will be posting a new Brexit metaphor every day for the next 161 days. I hope you will see a glimmer of reason and logic in these metaphors and, maybe, a glimmer of hope.

*French leave: leave without saying Goodbye.